Progress assessment of European Green Deal renovation strategy targets against member-state reporting data.
The European Commission’s Renovation Wave strategy, launched in October 2020 as a flagship initiative of the European Green Deal, set an ambition to at least double annual energy renovation rates of buildings by 2030. The mid-term assessment presented in this paper draws on the 2023 National Energy and Climate Plan updates submitted by all 27 member states and reconciles reported renovation activity with independently-derived energy performance certificate registry data.
Aggregate renovation rates across the EU stood at 0.96% of total floor area in 2023, compared to a baseline of 1.0% in 2020 — indicating a slight regression rather than the targeted acceleration. This figure partly reflects the statistical effect of expanded EPC registration requirements in several member states that have expanded the measured denominator. Adjusting for coverage changes, underlying renovation activity shows modest growth of approximately 0.08 percentage points. Deep renovation rates — the most energy-performance-relevant metric — improved more clearly, from 0.19% to 0.24%.
Member State Performance
Nine member states report renovation rates above the EU mean, led by Denmark (2.4%), Netherlands (1.75%) and Sweden (2.1%). These three countries share structural features that correlate with renovation intensity: near-universal EPC coverage, mature green mortgage markets, mandatory EPC requirements at point of sale/rental, and long-standing energy efficiency obligations on building owners.
At the lower end, six member states — Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia and Malta — report rates below 0.5%. These countries are characterised by large social housing deficits, fragmented private building ownership (particularly in condominium structures inherited from the socialist period), and limited national co-financing capacity for renovation subsidies. A case-by-case assessment of France’s MaPrimeRenov trajectory illustrates the policy levers available to higher-income member states with established renovation financing infrastructure.
Structural Barriers
The Renovation Wave mid-term report commissioned by the European Commission (2023) identifies five structural barriers limiting progress: (1) split incentive problems between landlords and tenants; (2) upfront capital constraints for owner-occupiers; (3) contractor capacity limitations in rural areas; (4) administrative complexity of multi-instrument subsidy stacking; and (5) insufficient long-term investment signals for the renovation supply chain.
The split incentive problem — whereby landlords bear renovation costs but tenants capture energy savings — affects an estimated 29% of the EU housing stock that is privately rented. Solutions being piloted in Germany, Denmark and France involve regulatory minimum standards for rental properties, effectively shifting the renovation obligation to property owners irrespective of capital recovery mechanisms.
Revised 2030 Trajectory
Modelling presented at the January 2024 Renovation Wave Technical Working Group suggests that, absent significant policy escalation, the EU will achieve an aggregate renovation rate of approximately 1.6-1.8% by 2030 — well below the 2.0-2.5% target range implied by the original strategy. Closing the gap would require a combination of mandatory MEPS enforcement, substantially enhanced financing instruments, and accelerated contractor training programmes for which current national vocational training budgets are demonstrably insufficient.
The full dataset underlying this mid-term assessment, including member-state-level renovation rate time series from 2018-2023, is available in the research archive. Renovation Wave progress is also tracked by the Renovate Europe campaign, which publishes annual country scorecards aligned with Green Deal targets.
Outlook
The mid-term picture is one of stalled momentum rather than outright failure: deep renovation rates are edging upwards even as headline activity stays broadly flat. Whether the EU narrows the gap to its 2030 ambition will depend on how quickly mandatory minimum standards, stronger financing instruments and expanded contractor training move from national plans into delivery. The member states already above the EU mean show that the combination is achievable; the challenge is replicating it where building ownership is fragmented and public co-financing capacity is limited.